Thursday, December 20, 2007

氣候怎變 反美不變

全球一百九十國家的代表,合共乘座噴射客機超過一萬班次,老遠的飛到印尼峇里,期間估計導致排放至少47000噸二氧化碳的聯合國氣候變化大會,終於在上周末閉幕了。在未談這次峇里會議之前,請大家先看一則報道﹕

"莫斯科地區發生幾世紀以情況最惡劣的旱災,中美洲、亞洲南部、中國、澳洲、撒哈拉以南亦出現嚴重早災﹔美國則有洪水為患‥‥"

大家可能以為以上又是有關「全球暖化」引起全球天災的報道。但其實,這是筆者節錄自1977年《讀者文摘》出版的《二十世紀大事實錄》。有趣的是,它並不是在描述「全球暖化」,而是在描述「全球冷化」﹕由於七十年代初期出現了「一連串不祥事件」(ominous events)─ 包括地球的冰雪增加了百分之十五、格陵蘭創下一百年來最低氣溫 ─ 該書指氣候學家相信地球的氣溫正在不斷變冷。沒有錯,七十年代傳媒口中的「全球危機」是「冰河時期重臨」,而不是「全球暖化」。

溫故知新,或許大家會更加了解現在所說的所謂「全球暖化危機」,究竟是甚麼一回事。事實上,自古以來恆常出現的氣候變化和天災,經過「悉心剪裁」之後,一向都是傳媒炮製「全球危機」的好材料。

回看這次峇里會議的報道,傳媒再一次淪為左翼環保信徒「人為全球暖化論」的宣傳工具。例如,傳媒會說「07年是有紀錄以來最熱的一年」,但卻不會提及事實上自98年開始,全球溫度一直走勢平坦,並沒有再上升過。另外,傳媒又會指「美國拒絕讓步」是各國未能達成減排目標的元凶,但卻不會提到美國近年的二氧化碳排放增長,其實遠較釐定了減排目標的歐盟各國為少,在06年更首次出現減幅。(※註)

另外,對於在會議期間,有超過一百名科學家、工程師及經濟學家聯名向聯合國秘書長潘基文發出公開信,嚴厲批評聯合國「跨政府氣候變化專家小組」(IPCC)一事,本地傳媒更是完全置若罔聞。那封公開信,不但抨擊IPCC廣泛宣傳、由小撮寫手撰寫的「製訂政策者撮要」(Summary for Policymakers),其實並不能代表「科學界共識」,更明確指出以「減排」來阻止氣候變化非但毫無科學根據,減排措施所造成的資源錯配和經濟放慢,對人類的遺害可能更大。

這封公開信更明確指出多個傳媒不斷向公眾洗腦式灌輸的「全球暖化」謬誤﹕二十世紀後期全球平均氣溫上升的幅度(每十年0.1至0.2 ℃),其實並沒有偏離過去一萬年來自然氣候變化的幅度﹔傳媒渲染的冰川融化、海水上升以及動物遷徙等現象,並沒有顯示氣候有異常的變化﹔目前的電腦模擬(computer models)技術,其實並沒有預測氣候能力,正如之前電腦模擬亦估計不到自1998年開始全球氣溫停止了「暖化」一樣。

不過,對於已被左傾自由派壟斷的本地傳媒來說,報道是否有科學根據似乎並不重要,因為整個所謂「全球暖化危機」,本質上其實是一場左翼的反美運動,無論如何,矛頭最終都一定指向美國。所以,即使在控制二氧化碳排放上成績較佳,依然是「罪在美國」,相反,歐盟本身減排失敗,其主催成立的排放權交易更導致大量弄虛作假,卻不會有人提起。傳媒更不會去質疑,要人口持續增長的美國,和人口日漸萎縮的歐洲,履行相同的減排目標到底是否合理。

隨着98年開始全球氣溫停止「暖化」,現在,越來越多左翼人士已改稱這場「危機」為「氣候變化危機」了。畢竟,不管未來的天氣是變暖抑或是變冷,他們這場反美運動還是會繼續下去的。
※註 ﹕數據請參閱《假大空的減排鬧劇

12月21日: Japan Omits Carbon Tax, Trading From Latest Pollution Measures
12月22日: Over 400 Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007
12月23日: U.S. Fertility Rate Hits 35-Year High

推薦閱讀:
Developing countries use global warming try to slow America's economy
2008: Year of global cooling
Climate alarmism hits a brick wall
Post-Bali Manic Depression

185 comments:

詩白爾 said...

我不能排除全球傳媒炒作o既事實
但係點解連美國o既傳媒都炒埋一份?

yellowcow said...

這反映美國傳媒業和香港的分別是很大。

真小人 said...

點樣美國傳媒業和香港的分別是很? 你有無答到問題? 詩白爾要話的是, 如果好似廢柴兄的邏輯, 全世界都因反美而支持全球暖化問題, 甘美國傳媒點解要會報導全球暖化呢?

廢柴兄的美奴身份已好明顯走左出來, 當然垃圾報也要支持一番, 不竟垃圾報與美國關係千絲萬縷.

廢柴兄收得人錢, 當然要做番d 野, 美國文膽, 實至名歸

庖丁 said...

比一小撮人還少的牛,又逐漸改變「左右」一詞內在的含意,牠已經左右不分。

牠又把1998年電腦模擬技術等同2007年技術,當然今日電腦技術還未能百份百準確預測天氣,於是某天黃牛總有機會說科學都不能準確預測天氣,又話事實上是左傾自由派壟斷的本地傳媒借報導天氣預測去反美云云,愛美的牛莫過於此。

Henry Chan said...

好簡單.....你地可能都唔知既一個事實,美國主流媒體(例如CNN,CBS,ABC,紐約時報,時代雜誌,新聞週刊等著名媒體)是左派及親民主黨既媒體......

只有FOX news 及華盛頓時報係右派
至於華爾街日報,新聞版係傾左,而評論版係傾右..係"精神分裂"既報紙

2005年有大學對美國主流媒體做左政治傾向調查更證實呢一點...只不過華爾街日報歸類為左派....因為係只以新聞版作為調查既關係.........

美國20大新聞媒體的政治傾向得分(50分為中線,50以上為政治傾左,50分以下則為偏右):
Washington Times 35.4
Fox News' Special Report with Brit Hume 39.7
Newshour with Jim Lehrer 55.8
CNN NewsNight with Aaron Brown 56
ABC Good Morning America 56.1
Drudge Report 60.4
ABC World News Tonight 61
NBC Nightly News 61.6
USA Today 63.4
NBC Today Show 64
Time Magazine 65.4
U.S. News and World Report 65.8
NPR Morning Edition 66.3
Newsweek 66.3
CBS Early Show 66.6
Washington Post 66.6
LA Times 70
CBS Evening News 73.7
New York Times 73.7
Wall Street Journal 85.1

http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/groseclose/pdfs/MediaBias.pdf

Henry Chan said...

港澳平面或電子媒體的國際新聞來源都係來自美國主流媒體.....立場自然會被這些左派主流媒體牽著鼻子走.......

Anonymous said...

左報的新聞是左聞,右報的新聞是右聞,來自美國媒體應不是醜聞乎

Anonymous said...

好複雜...扣人帽子不用講事實,睇吓佢地招牌傾向就可以

yellowcow said...

thanks henry

VC said...

老豆老母兄弟子女都有時呃你, 或者因為他們蠢而老點o左你。

可否不馮X必Y, 而看清事實, 聽齊兩方論據,獨立思考, 再作判斷。

民智高比高民主更能監控政府於正途!

kmb59 said...

“只有FOX news及《華盛頓時報》係右派……”
還有《紐約郵報》

Anonymous said...

人均 CO2 年排放:
USA : 20 tonnes
EU : 10 tonnes
China : 1/6 of US, (i.e. 1/3 of
EU)
sub-Saharan Africa : 0.9 tonnes
HK : 5 - 6 tonnes

黃牛講咗咁多「道理」同藉口,都係唔明美國人每年排成 20 噸 CO2,點解仲咁厚面皮?

黃牛所謂呢個全球暖化嘅「世紀大騙局」,點解唔似伊拉克擁有大殺傷力武器咁,會俾人踢得爆?

黃牛踢到腳抽筋,全球暖化嘅「世紀大騙局」,唔單止唔爆,仲越嚟越堅!點解?

因為地球環境日益受到嚴重污染呢個事實,越來越多人正視同關心,當然唔可以靠黃牛講嚟講去嗰幾句「自由經濟萬歲」、「高科技帶來生活享受」、「科技解決一切」、「環保就是扯高物價、窮人受苦」,就可以蒙混過去。

不如轉型去踢爆明星仔去滾去偷跳,賣料俾欣賞你嗰份「高質」報罷啦!

庖丁 said...

大家聽聽沒左翼傳媒報導的峇理會議香港參與者所言
http://www.radio71.hk/content/taiping/20071218taiping_mono.mp3

kmb59 said...

美國人口佔全球不足百分之五,本地生產總值卻佔全球百分之二十三,人均二氧化碳排放量較高不足為奇。

真小人 said...

kmb59好似搞唔清楚一d 野. 美國GDP係計埋佢地科技, 金融等的收入. 如果以kmb59的理論, 甘即係搵得錢多的人, 排放多d CO2或者破壞更多環境係不足為奇. 甘怪不得香港人現在都可以大條道理地破壞環境, 見到香港空氣污染問題, 便立即指晒係珠三角工廠問題, 但又唔知道好多珠三角的工廠都係香港人開的.

真小人 said...

我唔知Henry Chan 有無問清楚廢柴兄係引用那些美國傳媒. 不過, 好多人都知道不少報紙其實係某些利益或政治團體的打手. 唔好講甘遠, 好似蘋果日報, 米係泛民派的打手.

Anonymous said...

黃牛,如果峇里會議取消,那一萬多的航空班次是否會唔起飛?

yellowcow said...

你這問題應該問環保團體,他們都支持航空公司要乘客購買carbon offset來中和所產生的二氧化碳﹗

Anonymous said...

我都想global warming 係呃人嘅天下大騙局,所謂有超過一百名科學家、工程師及經濟學家聯名向聯合國秘書長潘基文發出嘅公開信,內容以為有新論點,可惜講嚟講去又係果啲反調,主旨都係石油經濟大晒,無嘢可以阻住經濟發展:


" It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon ....."

Climate change 當然係自然現象,當然唔可以阻止,好似我都可以話"人係無可避免要死",講咗等於冇講;問題重心係人類要stop air pollution。


"......all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables"

地球由形成至今有45億多年,當中有幾次冰河時期、物種滅絕、增溫等等,好多改變當然係無法預測,但以幾十億年的變化,去解釋、淡化這200年的突變,scale 上係咪好唔妥?用李+x ge 思維,去考慮赤貧國家人民每日隨時餓死ge問題?不如面對現實,解決眼前污染問題好過。


"...promoting economic growth and wealth generation"

人類要求世界經濟不斷增長,疊積財富,但忘了經濟体系原是建基於不斷開採地球資源,地球資源是有限的,不能支持無限的 economic growth,醒吓啦。


"....carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis."

又係講咗等於無講,旨在淡化溫室氣体 ge 角色,CO2 本身當然唔係毒氣,問題重點係人類呢200年突然大量排放CO2,呢個量超出地球原本可以自然吸收、調節 ge 限度,CO2濃度年年不斷提高,地球用嚟保暖 ge 溫室效應過咗龍,呢個係問題所在!


"....because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it"

My god,乜嘢邏輯?逐步戒毒、希望唔再吸毒會冇得 high high 哋,會痛苦咗,所以戒毒唔係辦法?


"Summaries are prepared by a relatively small core writing team....", "The summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts. "

睇嚟IPCC要將幾千人ge研究團隊大cut人手,否則間唔中走咗「一大班」科學家出嚟出張notice話唔認數,結果成個 IPCC reports 系列都好似變成非法作品。


".....not evidence for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie outside the bounds of known natural variability."

現在各種眼見 ge 大自然現象,你話係幾十億年以來都曾有出現過,冇乜特別,又係講咗等於冇講;除非你有一 log historic data,可以模擬工業革命以來 ge 大氣成份走勢,証明呢個 global warming 係意料中事;否則人類無節制地排放 green house gases,點會對擾亂大自然 ge 調節唔駛負責?


"...today's computer models cannot predict climate"

無論電腦幾發達,呢一句永遠都咁合用!做科研就係要以手頭有限資料作出分析、評估,predict the likelihood with reasonable grounds,要100%肯定,放長双眼睇咪知 lor!


"...significant new peer-reviewed research has cast even more doubt on the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused global warming. But because IPCC working groups were generally instructed to consider work published only through May, 2005...."

全球有好多財團勢力不斷 cast doubt on human-caused global warming,自身利益所在,唔想反思石油經濟,IPCC 到咗某一階段,就當然要確立論據,然後集中火力研究 solutions,如果仲同你哋糾纏,咪中晒計,可能到100年後石油泵乾後,先至冇 doubt on human-caused global warming 噃!


"Balanced cost/benefit analyses provide no support for the introduction of global measures to cap and reduce energy consumption for the purpose of restricting CO2 emissions."

為咗現在的經濟發展模式而對地球環境破壞、污染,點解唔做番個 cost/benefit analyses ?唔敢做?係!因為否則我哋享受緊 ge 食品、產品、侈華生活,成本會變得好貴!

yellowcow said...

Carbon dioxide is NOT air pollution

Anonymous said...

科學d ,carbon dioxide 係唔係對人有毒,要睇某空間空氣中所佔carbon dioxide分量先可確定。

VC said...

Anonymous(December 30, 2007 11:41 PM), you don't know 科學 & Carbon Dioxide at all!

kmb59 said...

“kmb59好似搞唔清楚一d野,美國GDP係計埋佢地科技、金融等的收入。”
任何經濟體系的GDP都包括科技、金融等的收入,美國當然也不例外。
“如果以kmb59的理論,甘即係搵得錢多的人,排放多d CO2或者破壞更多環境係不足為奇。”
較富裕的人士消耗較多能源不足為奇,至於製造多少二氧化碳或污染則要視乎使用什麼能源、能源效益及有什麼污染控制措施而定。
香港也是富裕社會。

急救Vc said...

二氧化碳中毒

CO2是无色、无臭的气体,高浓度时略带酸味,比重1.524,极易溶于水。高浓度CO2可使机体发生缺氧而窒息。一旦吸入高浓度CO2,部分人可先感头昏、心悸、迅速出现语妄、掠厥、昏迷,若不及时脱离现场抢救,可发生脑水肿、肺水肿,并因呼吸循环衰竭而死亡。

潛水人員二氣化碳中毒(Carbon Dioxide Intoxication)

  二氧化碳中毒的發生,可以因為氧氣不足而引起,也可以不因為氧氣不足而發生,潛水人員所戴頭盔管路通氣不良、憋氣太久、悶氣過長,或是裝備上太多的死角(例如SCUBA)都能夠引起二氧化碳中毒。在一些封閉式迴路和半封閉式迴路的呼吸儀器中忘了添加或用盡了二氧化碳的附吸物也會使得所使用的呼吸氣體產生二氧化碳中毒。在有些情況下氧氣的部份壓力高過0.5atm,呼吸變得短促是和二氧化碳中毒有關連,但卻不會像在低氧部份壓力下一樣的嚴重。在這些情況下,尤其潛水人員呼吸很吃力,可能在沒有預警下就昏亂了,甚至在昏迷不省人事之前還有點欣快症。

VC said...

ha ha ha ha ha!

急救Vc, pls ask someone you trust who knows a little bit science.

because of you, i understand why goble-warming so marketable.

P.S. 水中毒 is much easier. and try to search Oxygen 中毒...

Anonymous said...

well scholars

what is pollution ?

soil is not pollution ? or is it ?

i mean, if u put soil into a stream .. is it pollution ?

it's so GOD DAMN FUNNY to see ppl like VC and yellowcow talking about "pollution" without even a proper definition ..

in fact, even the hk law and scholars dispute on the definition of "pollution" and "pollutants"

There's no reference in HK Law as on what is Pollution/pollutant ..

For some legal references ..

1. R v Dovermoss Ltd.(1995) 159 JP 448 [1995] 11 LS Gaz R 37 - (a) pollution effect is to “make it[the water] impure, foul or filthy”; and (b) It was not necessary in such a case to establish actual harm; the likelihood or capability of causing harm to animal or plant life or those who used the water was sufficient

2. R v Eggar - (a) the likelihood of a lowering of quality of the controlled water makes no difference to the judgment of a polluting matter; (b) whether a discharged matter a pollutant relies on its capable of causing harm

3. Magistracy Appeal No. 942 of 2001 HCMA 942/2001 - pollutant is any matter that has the nature to render any receiving water impure, foul or filthy

How can I actually trust you that CO2 emission is not pollution pseudo-scholars? on the ground that CO2 concentration had raised to 400,000 year high (new record high) now ?

All you said is : o that's no pollutant, go and study

O maybe it is .. ? go and study ?

VC said...

我們的世界有很多問題,很多人只因水源不潔而死,很多人未有受教育的機會,...如果識字者不求甚解便被人蠱惑,輕易中計,只會引人犯罪,創造更多謊言來騙取利益,而真正問題卻被忽視了!

Anonymous said...

O dear VC u'r so cute ..

tell u what...I think it is easier to be cheated if u can't even define things properly.. and you dare say "CO2 is not a pollutant" without proper definition nor elaboration .. (at least other guests had copy&pasted something about how CO2 can kill .. and ooo what did we used to kill chickens back in 2003 the time of SARS?)

The debate over if "CO2 is a pollutant" is on going, and it's HOT ... but just for a quick reference, USA Supreme Court hold CO2 as a pollutant earlier in 2007and granted EPA the rights to regulat CO2 emission of new cars ..

http://www.dieselnet.com/news/2007/04epa.php

"CO2 is not a pollutant" .. re-think about it ..

VC said...

F U N N Y

yellowcow said...

Is the US Supreme Court a scientific institute? In my opinion the majority who voted for this verdict is wrong.

What is your definition of pollutant anyway?

A common sense definition: something is a pollutant to a medium if the absence of it is a good thing.

VC said...

in order to make coming discussions/debates more efficient, i suggest every Anonymous make his/her alias. It's so easy to open a new Gmail/Blogger ID.

VC said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution

VC said...

P.S. if you use Google ID to make comments, follow-up comments will be sent to your account. In addition, if you use your email software (outlook, outlook express...etc.) to get gmail emails, you can know follow-up comments immediately.

cv said...

vc,

你理得人出乜名,文意唔會因乜名而改變的

VC said...

cv, 非也。

首先,我們認知時會參考誰說的而影響理解的;

再者,回應時有上款方便得多。

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咁點解你唔帶頭用真名.

VC said...

alias = 真名?

Anonymous said...

>>A common sense definition: something is a pollutant to a medium if the absence of it is a good thing.

then try this ..

I have a stream here in HK .. I pour soil into the stream, and that degraded water and blocked fish gills and caused fish kills .. which is no-good, right?

then I stick to your definition of "pollutant" and obviously I can actually classify "soil" as a "pollutant" of "water" .. because the absense of it is good

cool ? isn't it ?

So now if I put you into a chamber, or a private car and sit down with a can of pressurized CO2.. I let the valve open and the room fill up with CO2 gas, CO2 concentration gets to 8% and you fall unconcious, and can result in death.. which is no-good too, right?

so by your definition, you defined CO2 as "pollutant" of "air" ..

see how it worked?

and btw, just google "CO2 as pollutant" yourself and see how many scientific insitutions are debating over that topic as I claimed that the debate is hot and open.. but you claimed CO2 is not a pollutant earlier and I can't see any reason to believe in you, you aren't scientific insitution and you got no hypothesis/elaboration to be tested anyway lol

yellowcow said...

I don't think you can avoid soil in a stream. Having pure water in any stream is not a good thing. So soil is not pollutant by common sense.

Why does any anyone want to purposely put soil in a stream? or for the life of me, put pressuized CO2 in a room. Why go into unrealistic hypothesis if you can cite examples that actually have some common sense in them.

Just to enlight us, can you cite any scientists that actually say that CO2 is a pullutant? I google it and see only politicians saying something so stupid.

Anonymous said...

so dear yellowcow

by your first definition of "common sense" it leads to a conclusion that CO2 is a pollutant

and by your second statement, which derived from "common sense" as well, you said that CO2 is not a pollutant

then is it self-contradictory? logic tells me that anything that is self-contradictory is flaw ..

ppl are pouring soil into streams for so many reasons.. if you did read thro' the case laws i posted earlier you could see how a construction site do that to a local stream.. or by general public by trying to catch fishes in streams and stir up the sediments .. or even by natural process of landslidings.. it dosen't seems "unlikely" at all for that to happen dose it?

and as for CO2 thing it is not an unrealistic assumption as well... aquarists who try to boost aquatic plant growth often got preurized CO2 for injection to water .. and that accident can happen when the safety valve opens, or the valve is physically damaged .. the common size is 1KG of CO2 gas, which roughly turns to 540L of CO2 gas .. which is good enough to fill up the cabin of a HIACE for over 20% CO2 concentration .. and is quite enough to make ppl feel sick in the small living rooms of hk ..

another good place to see high CO2 concentration would be indoor bus terminals .. we have so much of them in hk and most of them have really poor ventilation which makes CO2 accuminates ..

you call all these "unrealistic" ?

yellowcow said...

You can increase the CO2 content to 8% in my room. You can also spilling water on my floor or put soil on my sofa. Yes by my definition it makes water, CO2 and soil all pollutants, IN MY ROOM.

A steam is better off without the kind of soil from a construction site or landsliding. So those soils are pollutants.

Stirring up sediments by fish catching? I don't know. What is so bad about it anyway?

If you put soil in my tap water that definitly make soil a pollutant to my tap water. Same logic applies to your examples on CO2.

So what do all those have anything to do with your insistance that CO2 is a polluatnt to the ATMOSPHERE?

You keep saying CO2 is a pollutant. What are your reasons?

Anonymous said...

so mm .. let say ..

if i can kill myself in my car with CO carbon monoxide .. which i, probably, cannot do that in an open space

then shouldn't it be ruled out from the pollutant list JUST BECAUSE it can't produce the same lethal effect in a much larger space?

IF then you can discharge almost ANYTHING into air or sea, or even just a larger river .. because the dilution effect will do the job and nothing too bad could possibly happen anyway ..

and aa .. don't get me wrong, I never stated or claimed CO2 is a pollutant.. all I did so far is :
1. displayed court conclusions regarding "definition of pollutants" .. probably as a matter of law
2. demonstrated how would your definition, or say - common sense approach, fail to properly define pollutants
3. suggested realistic examples on how can perfectly natural substances like soil do harm ..

and you don't keep an aquarium of yourself do you ?

just stir up the soil substrate and you'll see fish kills the next morning .. it's just that simple .. (not to mention uprooting aquatic plants, burying snails and critters alive on the river bed and stiring up the organic waste at the bottom..it dosen't seems bad enough to you anyway?)

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