Monday, July 16, 2007

天文台的40年預測

7月16日各大報章引述天文台台長林超英預測指香港40年後恐無冬天

問題是﹕天文台「預測」40年後天氣,可以有多準確呢?

去年,天文台推出季度天氣預報機制,準確率是「約五成」(可參閱本網之前評論)。對一季的天氣預測,準確率尚且只得「約五成」,40年的預測,你猜準確率會有多「高」呢?

推薦閱讀: Tempest In A Teapot

9 comments:

Sun Bin said...

i m with you on this one.
like global warming, simple linear extrapolation by some dumb heads.

http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2007/06/no-winter-in-hk-in-half-century.html

不測風雲 said...

係呀,天有不測之風雲,如果地球多的黃牛類出現,恐20年就會知無冬的真章。

真小人 said...

一向的作風, 反科學, 反環保, 反干預, 反政府. 總之只顧今世享樂, 追求極端個人自由以及放任自由.

James said...

請問冬天的定義是什麼? 做得台長唔該講野科學d.

撓咀牛頸 said...

jams,

撬字義呀!搵黃牛啦!
捉字蝨呀!睇黃牛偽踢爆傳媒網誌啦!
想last say呀!寫黃牛網誌啦!

penguinization said...

hello 黃牛,

請不要針對香港天文台.

上期the economist報導NASA有一個新project研究雲的運作. 對, 就是天上的雲. 目前來說, 大家所知的其實不多. 換句話說, 全世界的天文台也是靠估的("估又有咩罪?"). 英文稱為educated guess.

不過他們的預言(有關the end of the world之類)是真的. 信我啦!

:p

Reference:
"Grey-sky thinking", The Economist, 5 Jul 2007
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9433721&CFID=14449505&CFTOKEN=90509228

真小人 said...

很久以前, 好多人以為地球之平面的, 佢地用有的知慧估下估下周圍的環境, 估下估下畫左d 地圖出來.

後來, 有d 人用呢d 估下估下的地圖, 四圍甘去, 估下估下地發現更多新大陸.

甘樣, 又有d 人估下估下地認為地球是圓形, 全世界人又認為佢地有問題. 結果之後又有人, 根據那班人估下估下的理論証明左地球是圓的.

無人確定自已訂下的理論是100%準確, 但只要不斷求証, 總會接近100%的正確 (因為地球也不是圓形, 而是"駝"圓形). 唔知這是不是科學精神呢?

Anonymous said...

Funny enough, the Meteorological Service Singapore (equivalent to HK's Observatory) tried to engage in researches on the effects on climate change in Singapore last year by pouring out the historical records of sea levels in the country. They have a complete set of records going on from 1881.

The government expected the researchers to find positive reports of systematic levels of sea level rising recorded on Singapore's shores. Unfortunately for the environmentalists, what they found were otherwise - there are fluctuations yes, but no rise in mean or median level sea levels comparing the data from 1881 to 2006.

Another inconvenient truth that gets ignored, apparently.

Anonymous said...

I like the word "Inconvenient Truth" being abused lol

Any link to the report regardinng Singapore's Sea Level changes over the past century? It sounds interesting because it dosen't match with observations that the rest of the world had seen.. I mean, like Venice it's flooding almost everyday now as sea level increases .. but then maybe the land sunk isn't it? anyway, any links to the report?