Thursday, July 20, 2006

全球暖化的爭議

當討論全球暖化這問題時, 需要清楚一些事實:

  • 過去100年全球平均溫度無疑是400年來最高的, 而地球平均溫度在過去百年只上升了0.6
  • 大氣中二氧化碳份量在過去100年來不斷增加, 在過去100年升了大約35%, 由280ppm升至380ppm, 這應該是人為的
  • 二氧化碳是其中一種溫室氣體(水和甲烷也是), 所有因素相同情況下, 二氧化碳增加會令氣溫升高
  • 二氧化碳不是污染物
  • 影響氣候的因素有很多, 例如太陽的熱力, 海底放出的甲烷(methane), 還有空氣中的浮質(aerosols)等
  • 地球氣候億萬年以來都一直在變化, 時高時低, 近代的地球溫度顯示1000年至1500年間地球經歷了一段Medieval Warm Period, 普遍認為當時的平均溫度要比現在的要高, 而1500至1850年側是個Little Ice Age, 近百年地球經歷的0.6度溫度上升很大可能只不過是自然循環現象
  • 因為人口增加和經濟發展, 二氧化碳排放只會繼續增加, 目前並沒有方法阻止

有爭議的是目前的暖化有多少程度是二氧化碳增加所造成, 多少是自然的因素, 將來的暖化會是多少, 影響會是什麼, 暖化是否一定是壞事, 減少二氧化碳排放幫助有多大, 有沒有方法可以減少二氧化碳排放, 因此對經濟所造成的影響會否帶來更大的災難。

8月9日補充: 一篇很中肯的有關全球暖化的文章

23 comments:

sunfai said...

this is interesting that you always 'bust' on enviornmental news...... any reasons on that?

yellowcow said...

It just happens that local media is absoultely one-sided on this issue and there is more of this kind of news lately.

Certainly there are other news that deserve busting. But yellowcow has to be familiar with those issues first. Yellowcow doesn't bust without facts as back up.

Anonymous said...

Yellowcow does a very good job.

When environmentalism is preceived more as truth, more effort is needed to state your case.

By the way, are you a journalist?

不大不小 said...

其實global warming的研究有不少,但我還是不太明白他們的論據。
我也有看些比較權威的學術雜誌,能肯定的只是氣溫在過去數百年是有急劇轉變,但還沒有空看他們是否能有論據地指出這是由於人類的行為。

我想研究這課題的人是不會想最後的結果是「其實沒有global warming」,因為他們的整個事業都押在這個課題上,如果沒有的話,他們的成就、學術地位就不保了。所以看他們的研究結果要比其他的小心。

yellowcow said...

至少有部份研究這課題的人是會誇大global warming的現象和危機, 這樣他們便會得到更多的研究經費。

Global warming在以後數年都會是全球一個重要的話題, 不論是否真實, 反資本主義自由經濟的人都會利用這話題來達到其目的, 要知道差不多所有活動(包括你的呼吸)都會釋放二氧化碳, 控制二氧化碳的排放就等於控制了所有經濟活動。

Ming said...

科學家鑽入格稜蘭冰層,取出長達數公里的冰芯,再研究橫切面,當中發現地球的二氧化碳濃度會有突然升降的情形,亦都會有逐漸升或降週期出現,可以肯定的是沒有一個長期穩定的水平。

現在的“Global warming”或者因二氧化碳濃度增高週期所形成,但暫時未有結論。

sunfai said...

agree....... wow, to many environmental activists, it's not about 'facts' but about power game and strategy. that maybe one of the major difference between a good journalists and a good activists :P

Anonymous said...

二氧化碳的閱讀︰
1.
維京百科
2.
京都協議
3.
二氧化碳中毒與窒息

Anonymous said...

YELLOWCOW 問「暖化是否一定是壞事?」
五十死者無言以對...

Anonymous said...

Yellowcow問「暖化是否一定是壞事?」
YELLOWCOW 更多死者無言以對...

yellowcow said...

美國每年平均凍死的人數是熱死的3倍多。

寒 said...

全球暖化可致更多人凍死

yellowcow said...

全球暖化可致更多或更少人凍死, 也可致更多或更少人熱死, 這正是yellowcow一直所說的, 其影響如何根本沒有人知。

當任何可能發生的事都可被說成是全球暖化造成, 那麼全球暖化這一種學說就永遠都不能被否證,即代表此學說根本談不上是一個嚴格的科學理論。

寒 said...

yellowcow將「全球暖化」簡單化為真與偽的論證,就如把天氣預測當是真假之說般捉錯用神。

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