Saturday, July 29, 2006

全球冷化?

各報紙近來報導歐美天氣酷熱, 導致多人熱死, 並認定這是全球暖化現象, 是否因為有數年較熱的天氣便可以作這樣的結論呢?

根據時代雜誌在74年的報導, 只不過在30多年前, 當時的危機是全球冷化global cooling, 原因主要是當時全球的溫度在之前30年間是下降了。

8月1日補充: 南極錄得接近有記錄以來最低溫度。

9月4日補充: Newsweek1975年有關全球冷化的報導

10月25日補充: Newsweek對其1975年有關全球冷化報導的解釋

10月27日補充: 過去100年美國傳媒其實不斷有關於冷化或暖化的報導

15 comments:

Ming said...

全球暖化、全球冷化之外還有全球暗化!

曾有一位以色列科學家因研究日照對農作物的影響,而作長達十多年的觀察分析,最後他發現日照率平均每十年下降1-2%。

寒 said...

「全球暖化/ 全球冰化」閱讀

全球暖化的現象

本世紀末平均氣溫再升攝氏五度

赤道也會下雪

臨界點反饋現象

(不是科學,只供參考,自己判斷)

yellowcow said...

如果科學界30年前全球冷化的預測是錯的話, 為什麼要對一些近來全球暖化的預測深信不疑呢?

寒 said...

兩不相干的事,30年前是錯又如何?

Zoner Trading said...

I'd challenge the validity of your post.

1) It isn't just about recent DAYS of heat that have people talk about global warming. It is about recent YEARS of heat wave with increasing death tolls in Europe/US. Twenty of the 21 hottest years measured have occurred within the last 25 yrs, and the hottest year - you guess it - 2005 (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/23/books/23kaku.html?ex=1306036800&en=aa3b3a80cef4cc07&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss).

2) On the contrary, your example that Antarctica has near-record low temperature is a one-day thing.

3) Even if it is indeed near the lowest temperature (-89.4C), it has no relevance to global warming. Global warming is making the world's temperature more extreme, and so the hot gets hotter and the cold gets colder, making it more unfriendly for human to live.

Please see Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" for more in-depth study on global warming. I was never a Gore fan, but I must admit he made a good movie.

In any case, your site is a great one and I appreciate it. I hope you can maintain the quality and present the truth as it is. Thanks.

yellowcow said...

Zoner,
1) You mentioned only heat wave in EU/US, how about the rest of the world? Global warming is supposed to be a global phenomenal, right? Remember, the average global temp has raised by less than 1C in the past century.
2) This is an example showing that while some places may get very hot, other may get very cold. This is nothing unusual or alarming. Just the nature of climate itself.
3) Because the average global temp is not rising as much and as fast as those alarmists would like, to convince people that global warming is true, they very cunningly shift the attention to the so call "extreme climate". The truth is in any given year, you will find extreme temp or climate somewhere in this world.

Finally I would also recommend you read Michael Crichton's book, State of Fear. Besides being informative, it is also very entertaining.

yellowcow said...

Al Gore is a hypocrite.

Zoner Trading said...

If you just focus on avg temp around the planet, then a place where it is 90C during the day and -50C at night is a great place for human to live, for it is 20C on average, great weather isn't it?

You can't deny the facts that we are losing the ice sheets:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2006-08-14-greenland-warming_x.htm?POE=TECISVA

Lastly, calling Al Gore a hypocrite is personal attack, not critical thinking. If the goal is to seek truth, then what's important is the validity of the statement that the person makes, not the character of the person himself. I am not defending Al Gore and honestly I never like him when he was Vice President. But to make rational assessment, we need to separate our personal opinion of a person and the validity of a statement.

yellowcow said...

Average global temp is a good indicator of whether and how much Global Warming is happening. While the temp difference between day and night is irrelevant.

Al Gore does not practice what he preaches therefore it is fitting to call him a hypocrite.

yellowcow said...

It is true that Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking. But they have been shrinking for the past century. That means it is probably not related to Global Warming, which is supposed to be a recent phenomenon. More importantly this finding suggests that it is not man-made.

Zoner Trading said...

A person can be a hypocrite yet what he says is not necessarily false. For example, you can be a smoker and yet you tell kids that smoking is bad for health. Calling someone a hypocrite does not help making your statement more true or his statement incorrect.

Now speaking of hypocrite, you may also want to check out your fellow Robert Balling, who is a director of the Office of Climatology at Arizona State University, and who is a declared "Global Warming Skeptic" just like you.

1) He has acknowledged to receive more than $400k of funding from the likes of ExxonMobil and OPEC (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Robert_C._Balling).

Hmmmm, no wonder.

2) Recently though, he changed his tone...In Balling and Sen Roy (2005) he writes: "The buildup of greenhouse gases and/or some other global-scale feedback, such as widespread changes in atmospheric water vapor, emerge as potential explanations for the recent residual warming found in all latitudinal bands..." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Balling)

Go figure.

yellowcow said...

So we both agree that Al Gore is a hypocrite. Let move on.

1) Robert is not a hypocrite just because he received funding from oil business. There is no evident that he does not practice what he preaches. Is he the only skeptic you can find?

2) That would mean that he is honest, despite funding from oil business.

Emerge as potential explanation? That still sounds like an skeptic to me.

See, we are skeptics, not opponents. We are open to the fact that warming is happening and human activities playing some parts in it. We are skeptical of mostly the dooms day scenario present by activists. And we are unimpressed with the mass media presenting Global Warming as a settled fact.

yellowcow said...

Global Warming a Boon for Greenland's Farmers

Anonymous said...

I think global warming is caused by natural phenomenon rather than human activity.

The scientist emphasis global warming impact are just an excuse. The main objective is to promote environment protection for reducing use of energy. Energy problem and air pollution problem are much more severe than climate problem for our future.

Joe said...

> 如果科學界30年前全球冷化的預測是錯的話, 為什麼要對一些近來全球暖化的預測深信不疑呢?

Just lying the public for political reasons.

Main objective may include

1) To let the public use less energy and reduce pollution. You know, energy resources are limited.

2) Rich countries discourage poor countries development, so that they remains superpower and leaders in the world.

3) Arrogant. Scientist cheats others that modern society is so advance that even make global climate change.